Golden Mantis (002081) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Steady performance, abundant cash flow and improved orders
Note: Golden Mantis released third quarter report for 2019: the company achieved revenue of 227 in the first three quarters of 2019.410,000 yuan, +22 a year.66%, net profit attributable to mother / non-net profit deduction of 17 each.50 billion, 17.10 trillion, ten years +10.47%, +9.71%.Net operating cash flow -8.09 million yuan, one year less.2.7 billion. Comment: Net revenue continued to grow at two figures, with a high base to increase Q3: the company achieved revenue of 227 in the first three quarters of 2019.410,000 yuan, +22 a year.66%, net profit attributable to mother 17.50 billion, ten years +10.47%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was significantly lower than the earlier growth rate of income12.19 pp, we think the main reasons are: 1) Operating cost +23 for half a year.87% to 185.16 ppm; 2) Redemption due to redemption due to the fund trust plan results in a net investment return of -47 per year.87% to 0.4.9 billion.By quarter, 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved revenue of 60.5.7 billion / 77.3.9 billion / 89.4.5 billion, +19 per year.57% / + 32.54% / + 17.16%, net profit attributable to mother 6 each.01 billion / 5.07 billion / 6.43 trillion, ten years +8.65% / + 16.36% / + 7.86%, affected by the high base in the same period last year, the company’s Q3 single-quarter revenue, net profit growth rate extended, but the performance has always been stable. The increase rate of orders in the new quarter is buoyed by strong orders. The first three quarters of 2019 the company gradually developed new orders 334.24 ppm, +17 a year.30%, year-on-year growth rate is 4 lower than 18Q1-Q3.85 pp, which is 8 lower than 19H1.05 pp; quarterly, Q1-Q3 new year consecutive increase of +30.43%, +21.06%, +3.65%, Q3 growth rate dropped sharply, we think it may be related to the continued tightening of real estate policies; by project type, the company newly signed public installation, residential, design orders of 185 each.60 billion / 126.5.1 billion / 22.1.3 billion, +15 a year.57% / + 17.90% / + 29.87%, compared with 19H1, design orders continue to maintain a high growth rate, public equipment, residential orders increased; the company has a large number of orders in hand, continued at the end of the reporting period, and gradually signed uncompleted orders 645.47 ppm, +21 for ten years.08%, about 2 of 2018 revenue.57 times. The gross profit margin decreased slightly, the fee rate decreased during the period, and the cash flow improved: 1) The profitability shifted slightly, and the company’s gross profit margin decreased by -0 in the first three quarters of 2019.79 to 18.58%, net interest rate is -0 per second.91 pp to 7.65%; 2) The rate is -0 per second during the period.27 pp to 8.81%, broken down by item, the sales rate and management rate are each -0.40 / -0.21 pp to 2.29% / 6.09%, financial expenses increased by 0.35 pp to 0.44%, mainly due to the increase in corporate loan interest and bill discount fees; 3) Net operating cash flow continued to improve, at least once.2.7 billion to -8.The RMB 0.99 million is mainly due to the company’s audited collection performance, and the total cash received for sales of goods and services +24.44% to 201.8.6 billion yuan. Completion improves and new business development is added, and the company’s long-term and short-term growth is worry-free: 1) At the end of September, the completed area expanded to -8.60%, the decline continues to narrow and narrow, exceeding the growth rate of the highest value in 18 years; 2) the company’s design and construction of two-wheel drive, increase EPC project commitment, while promoting BIM, VR, cloud design systems and other technology applications;The “four modernizations” construction has gradually landed, exploring the whole-house custom OEM + ODM model; 4) Responding to the increase in the layout of the main business, and exploring new growth points such as the theme packaging division and professional division. Earnings forecast and rating: The company’s performance is stable, and it is actively exploring new growth points, which is estimated to be near the bottom.We maintain our projected EPS for 2019-2021.92, 1.07, 1.26 yuan, PE is 9x, 8x, 7x, land completion bottomed out and converted to conversion. For the benchmark comparable company, we give a target estimate of 10-13 times 南宁桑拿 in 2020, with a target price of 10.7-14.0 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level. Risk reminder: Real estate forecast exceeds expectations, new business expansion exceeds expectations, and new model exploration is less than expected.