Comment: Investment does not rely on a stable environment for stocks, are you Zhuge Liang afterwards?
Original title: Stock speculation, are you Zhuge Liang afterwards?  Recently, many friends of Chen Jiahe talked to me about the new coronavirus incident and regretted being located: “I knew it would be good to sell all the stocks before the Spring Festival!”I heard some wind and grass at that time, why didn’t I start trading?”Actually, this idea of” knowing how I am and what I should be then “is a typical afterthought in investment.  After an emergency, we often imagine ourselves to be one step ahead of the market, but this is based on the information we have afterwards.And this kind of information didn’t exist before the event, and before the event broke out, we didn’t push the transaction: this proves that the information we have before and after the event is different.  After the event, whoever will Zhuge Liang will let us sort out again, in the new coronavirus incident, the time line of change in the capital market.The 2020 Chinese New Year holiday starts on January 24, and until January 23, the news of “Wuhan has pneumonia” has not replaced the headlines of the media. The A-share market on January 23 and before only reflected 1.1 points.Point small fluctuations.  Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2 on January 23.8%, but from the perspective of the market’s pattern, this decline and 1 month ago, 1 on December 23, 2019.The 4% decline was no different, the other decline was quickly replaced by an increase.On January 24, after the A-share market was closed due to the Spring Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market also traded for half a day. During this period, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.2%.  During the Spring Festival holiday, the new coronavirus incident was rapidly fermented, and the whole society began active epidemic prevention work.The Hong Kong stock market opened earlier than the A-share market. It fell 3 on January 29.3%, fell another 2 on January 30.6%, another 0 on January 31.5%, continued to fall intraday on Monday, February 3.In just 4 trading days, the Hang Seng Index fell by up to 6.5%.On the one hand, the Hong Kong stock market opened during the Spring Festival holiday, while the mainland A-share market closed from January 24 to February 2.On the opening of February 3, the A-share market fell sharply, but the decline was similar to that of the Hong Kong stock market during the period.The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7 on February 3.7%, the CSI 300 Index fell 7.9%.  After the A-share market hit its lowest point on February 3, it began to rise all the way.In the 13 trading days from February 4 to February 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell in only two trading days, rising from 2746 points on February 3 to 3030 points on February 20.At the same time, the Hang Seng Index also rose from 26356 on February 3 to 27609 on February 20.In other words, before the Chinese New Year holiday on the 24th of January, the term “new coronavirus”, which was later familiar to everyone, hardly caught the market’s attention.After the A-share market actually opened on February 3, when mainland investors can buy and sell A-shares and use Hong Kong Stock Connect to trade Hong Kong stocks, the market’s decline will be in place.  For the analysis method that later opened the perspective of “post-mortem Zhuge Liang”, after the market crash on February 3, after all the information was clear and the huge socio-economic impact of the new coronavirus was known, “thisThe epidemic situation has a great impact. We should sell our positions before the Spring Festival. It is a very reasonable and easy thing.However, before January 23, when all the information was unclear, and when everyone except the front-line infectious disease experts had no knowledge of the new coronavirus, it was difficult for us to make a decision to sell our positions.  Infinite reliance on stable environment for investment. From the public net performance of the best public fund managers in the mainland market, we can also see that these historically proven, the best investors in the A-share market have become Mr. Cao Mingchang of China Europe FundMr. Fu Pengbo of Yuan Fund did not sell many positions before the Spring Festival.The China-Europe Value Discovery Fund fell 7 on February 3.99%, Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund fell 7.78%, the decline is basically the same as the market.However, this does not prevent these fund managers from ever making 10 times returns for investors.  If an investor feels that he should sell his positions on both hands using the limited “Wuhan has pneumonia” information on January 23, then he will find that there are too many things in his life that he needs to sell.Position.The United States ambushed the Iranian general in early 2020, which may cause chaos in the international community. The investor should sell the position; when the plague patient in Inner Mongolia was transferred to Beijing for treatment at the end of 2019, the investor should sell the position; in 2014This summer, when the plague was found in Gansu Province, and more than 100 people were in close contact, this investor should sell the position; when the plague was found in Qinghai Province in 2009, the investor should sell the position again; in 2009This year, when the H1N1 influenza virus broke out in the world, this investor should sell his position.  In human society, there is no such thing as a diamond propaganda slogan “forever and ever,” forever stable and practical.Our society is constantly fighting infectious diseases, beasts, volcanoes, volcanoes, tsunamis, floods, typhoons, earthquakes, and even solar storms and meteorites.The reason our society is so prosperous today is never because we have not encountered disaster.It is just because in the face of any disaster, people can always unite and mobilize the power of this society to fight disasters in a rational and scientific way.The most powerful organizational mobilization ability in natural species and the most scientific analysis methods in hand, humans have come all the way from the era of drinking blood, standing out from the millions of species on the earth, creating today’s prosperous age.  Therefore, for investment, the stable market environment is never worth relying on.A true value investor will never say, “I do n’t buy stocks today because of bad news,” and “I do n’t buy stocks when there is bad news.”A true value investor, the real source of profits is not the calm environment, not the 北京夜网 ability of human society to overcome disasters and build lives every year.This ability has increased the Dow Jones Industrial Index from 70 points in 1900 to 29200 points today, and the Hang Seng Index from 100 points in 1964 to 27400 points today. It will also continue to invest in firm, patient, and sane values in the futureThis brings great returns.  (The author is the chief investment officer of Jiuyi Qingquan Technology)